I am like millions of sports fans. I am an NFL guy. Football is king; everything else is a distant second. That is why this is such an important and exciting time of the year. The regular season started with the NFL Kickoff Special on Wednesday, September 5th when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants, 24-17, at MetLife Stadium. Meanwhile, the rest of the league kicks off their 2012 this upcoming Sunday and Monday. After a wonderful summer with the 2012 Summer Olympics, an exciting IndyCar Series season, thrilling marquee UFC fights, and a baseball season full of historic accomplishments, it is nice to say that football season is finally back. As great as all of those sporting events are, none of them patch the excitement, drama, or punch of National Football League action.
As I have done since the beginning of The Highlight Reel, it is time for my annual preview of the upcoming NFL season. In the upcoming series of blogs, I am briefly going to preview all 32 teams for the upcoming 2012 season. In addition, I will be making predictions that you can take to the bank (if you want to lose all of your money). Still, it is very fun to make predictions about the upcoming NFL season and watch as they all ring false by Week 5. This is my preview of the 2012 NFL season - starting with the AFC.
NFL Team Previews - The AFC
AFC East
Buffalo Bills - The Buffalo Bills made waves during the off-season by signing QB Vince Young (from Philadelphia) and DE Mario Williams (from Houston). While Young did not survive the preseason cuts, I think Williams will be a major player on a Buffalo Bills team that will surprise many in 2012. Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick returns off a career season in 2011 to lead a Bills offensive that will heavily feature star running back Fred Jackson and wide receiver Stevie Johnson. I love the addition of Williams to an already stout defense. I do not believe Buffalo is a legit Super Bowl contender by any stretch of the imagination. However, I would not be surprised to see Buffalo get a wild card berth in 2012. The Bills are young, hungry, and loaded with potential. (Estimated number of wins: 8-10)
Miami Dolphins - Hoping to improve off a 6-10 2011 season, the Miami Dolphins have a new head coach in Joe Philbin and new quarterback in rookie Ryan Tannehill. Yeah, the Dolphins can hope all they want but the 2012 season will be one of the worst seasons in franchise history. While running back Reggie Bush stands out as the brightest star on the Dolphins, he cannot carry the entire team. Tannehill has no weapons to throw the ball to with Brandon Marshall traded to Chicago and the star free agency acquisition WR Chad Johnson already released. Even if Tannehill loses the starting job to Matt Moore later in the season, the lack of other offensive weapons kill Miami’s chances. The Dolphins defense is the only real positive I see in Miami. Defensive end Cameron Wake and linebacker Karlos Dansby will have stellar years. However, Miami does not have enough offense to succeed. 2012 will be a miserable time for Dolphins fans. (Estimated number of wins: 2-4)
New England Patriots - The New England Patriots really deserve the name “America’s Team.” After all, America is a capitalist country where the rich get richer and New England continues to get richer with every passing off-season. Coming off a second Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants, the Patriots are looking to erase the disappointment of that loss with another huge season and fourth Lombardi trophy for Coach Bill Belicheck and quarterback Tom Brady. I think that New England will miss the veteran presence of running back Kevin Faulk and wide receiver Deion Branch (both released) and the versatility of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (now in Cincinnati). However, Brady still has WR Wes Welker as his primary target and three huge targets in tight ends Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and newly acquired Visanthe Shiancoe (from Minnesota) to torment opposing defenses with. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense looks vastly improved over last season’s group with the additions of DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont’a Hightower, and FS Tavon Wilson via the 2012 Draft. The Patriots have their division won now. The real question is if New England has another super Bowl run in them. I think New England will be a major contender and are, alongside Baltimore, the class of the AFC. It will not surprise me to see the Patriots in another Super Bowl at the end of this season. (Estimated number of wins: 13-15)
New York Jets - When the best passer of your quarterbacks is third-sting QB Greg McElroy, you know things are bad. That is the story of the New York Jets. Over the off-season, the Jets resigned Mark Sanchez to a multi-year extension and traded for Tim Tebow from the Denver Broncos. The Jets are the league’s biggest source of stories. However, none are positive. In the preseason, only McElroy led a touchdown drive in four games. I am amazed that new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano remains employed. The New York Jets have went from one win away from a Super Bowl berth in consecutive seasons to 8-8 last season to whatever new depths they will reach this season. As strong as New York’s defense under coach Rex Ryan can be, their offense is so pitiful that victories will be few and far between in 2012. The Jets have three quarterbacks, meaning they have no quarterbacks. Joe McKnight and Shonn Greene remain to underachieve in the backfield with the retirement of LaDainian Tomlinson. Santonio Holmes is the only stellar receiver while TE Dustin Keller is still an overrated dropping machine. New York’s defense will keep the Jets in many games. The veteran leadership of studs like LB Bart Scott and secondary standouts Antonio Cromartie, LaRon Landry, and Darrelle Revis will help rookie DE Quinton Coples develop that much faster. However, the Jets offense will struggle so much that I fear New York will be out of the running before Halloween is here, incredible defense or not. (Estimated number of wins: 4-6)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - Coming off the heels of a heartbreaking AFC Championship Game loss to New England, I believe the Baltimore Ravens are coming into the 2012 season with a chip on their shoulder that will not be easy to knock off. Entering their fifth seasons in Baltimore, head coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco are poised to reach their first Super Bowl together. Harbaugh’s leadership is among the league’s best while Flacco is quietly among the best game-managers in the NFL today. Running back Ray Rice continues to thrive for the Ravens while the addition of wide receiver Jacoby Jones from Houston will help Anquan Boldin find more man-on-man coverage that he can manipulate to his advantage. The loss of linebacker Terrell Suggs to injury will hurt the legendary Baltimore defense. However, Ray Lewis is still seemingly ageless as he enters season number 17 while rookie linebacker Courtney Upshaw should lessen the blow of losing Suggs for the season. I love the way Baltimore plays as their smash mouth style screams old-school football and not finesse football. If they do not allow the epic nature of their AFC Championship Game loss affect them mentally, Baltimore will find themselves back in the AFC Championship Game this season. 2012 is Super Bowl or bust for the Ravens. (Estimated number of wins: 10-12)
Cincinnati Bengals - I never believed that last year’s Bengals would go 9-7 and get a playoff berth. I was so wrong on this team. The Bengals return the core of last year’s surprise success story. Second-year starter Andy Dalton is looking to improve on a rookie campaign that saw Dalton make the Pro Bowl. He and wide receiver AJ Green will only get better with experience. The Bengals lost running back Cedric Benson to free agency but acquired the vastly underrated BenJarvus Green-Ellis from New England to come out of the backfield. The Bengals defense continues to look impressive with a roster full of solid team players. I do not believe that Cincinnati will have the same amount of success in 2012 as last season. The element of surprise is gone for this team. With that said, Cincinnati should still flirt with a .500 record and play spoiler to many teams late in the season. (Estimated number of wins: 7-9)
Cleveland Browns - I am sorry, Cleveland fans. I am so, so sorry. Last season, I believed in Cleveland enough to say that the Browns could finish .500. Wow, I was wrong on that. Star running back Peyton Hillis is now in Kansas City after an unceremonious exit. The Browns have a 28-year-old rookie, Brandon Weeden, at quarterback and rookie running back Trent Richardson looking to turn around one of the most anemic offenses in the National Football League in 2011. Wide receiver/kick return specialist Josh Cribbs will be one of the bright spots for the Browns. Sadly, for Cleveland fans, I believe he will be the only bright spot. Weeden will not finish the season as starting QB, either because of injury or futility; while I fear Richardson will be ineffective late in the season because of overuse, injuries, and the inflated expectations that come with being the #3 overall draft pick. Cleveland will be one of the league’s worst teams or, as Cleveland fans say, it will be another typical season for the Browns. (Estimated number of wins: 3-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers - The 2012 Pittsburgh Steelers have a different look from the Steelers who have reigned supreme in the AFC for almost a decade. Longtime Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward is now working for NBC Sports while linebacker James Farrior is gone. Still, most of the premiere Steelers are still on the roster. The change in appearance will come in the new leadership alongside head coach Mike Tomlin. New offensive coordinator Todd Haley has implemented a new offense in Pittsburgh that has ruffled the feathers of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Still, Big Ben should shine as his staff of receivers includes young stud wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown alongside veteran WR Jericho Cotchery and tight ends Heath Miller and Leonard Pope (a Haley favorite from their time in Arizona). If Pittsburgh can keep their running backs healthy, the Steelers offensive will be among the league’s elite. Pittsburgh’s defense, while appearing old, is still as hard-hitting as ever. Health is an issue though as Pittsburgh’s defense struggled with remaining healthy over the course of last season. When healthy, the Steelers defense and core stars LB James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel, LB LaMarr Woodley, and SS Troy Polamalu are second to none. However, if the Steelers show their age and players begin taking plays or games off, the Steelers defense will make the team vulnerable to lesser teams. I do not see a Super Bowl run in this year’s Steelers. However, if they made a run, it really would not be a surprise as Pittsburgh is just one of those organizations that never seem to falter for long. I think a more realistic outcome for the Steelers is a wild card berth in 2012. (Estimated number of wins: 9-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans - After living on potential for years, the Houston Texans finally won the AFC South and earned a playoff berth in 2011. However, by the time they reached the postseason, quarterback Matt Schaub was out for the year and stud wide receiver Andre Johnson was playing injured. Still, the Texans got their first playoff victory in franchise history and finally lived up to some of the potential they have shown for years. Unless major injuries affect the team this season, I believe the Texans are a lock for the AFC South again in 2012. With Schaub and Johnson healthy, they make for one of the most lethal combinations in the AFC while running back Arian Foster is one of the game’s elite backs. On defense, Houston will miss DE Mario Williams (lost to Buffalo via free agency) but will not miss a beat with DE J.J. Watt and linebacker Brian Cushing leading a strong Texans defense. Houston has all of the tools necessary to win and finally have a taste of victory in their seventh season under Gary Kubiak’s leadership. Houston is a playoff team with an outside chance at an AFC Championship Game berth. While I do not believe they are on the same page as Baltimore or New England, Houston is right there with Pittsburgh and Denver on the second tier of AFC dominance. (Estimated number of wins: 10-12)
Indianapolis Colts - After going 2-14 with Peyton Manning on the sidelines, the Indianapolis Colts are a completely new team in 2012. Manning is returning from injury in Denver. Former Baltimore defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano is now head coach. Andrew Luck, #1 overall draft pick, is the new starting quarterback. Longtime Colts like Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai, and Gary Brackett are gone. These are not the Indianapolis Colts of the last decade. While the Andrew Luck Era is underway, I do not think the era will have any success in 2012. Indianapolis looks like a hot dumpster fire in waiting. Reggie Wayne is the only stable veteran receiver for Luck as wide receiver Austin Collie continues to struggle with concussions. Indianapolis also drafted tight end Colby Fleener, Luck’s favorite target at Stanford, so Luck will have a semblance of familiarity in Indy. The defense still has leadership in DE/LB Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. While they lack other big names on defense, Pagano led Baltimore to one of the most elite defenses for years and will bring that leadership with him to Indianapolis. The Colts will improve on 2-14. However, it will not be by much. 2012 will not be a pretty season for the Colts. (Estimated number of wins: 3-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars - Under new leadership in new owner Shahid Khan and new coach Mike Mularkey, the Jacksonville Jaguars are hoping to improve on their 5-11 record in 2011. They can hope for improvement but it will not come in 2012. Blaine Gabbert starts his second season at QB with Chad Henne, formerly of Miami, waiting in the wings to take over. Jacksonville’s lone star over the last six seasons, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, is fighting the team over a better contract and missed training camp and the preseason in his holdout. Even with Jones-Drew back, Jacksonville does not really stand a chance at being successful. The rest of the offense is weak. Rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon appears like a legit weapon to help change the Jaguars’ ways but must first stay out of trouble with the law. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition Laurent Robinson moves up the depth chart with his move to Jacksonville from Dallas. The defense is nothing to celebrate as this collection of unknowns try to stop opposing offenses; something Jacksonville has not accomplished in years. Jacksonville is going to suffer another ugly season with nothing to show for it but a lot of losses and disappointed fans. (Estimated number of wins: 3-5)
Tennessee Titans - The Tennessee Titans were one of the most pleasant surprises of the NFL in 2011 as their 9-7 record surprised many and almost earned them a wild card berth. Going into his second year as coach, Mike Munchak now has sophomore quarterback Jake Locker in the starting spot over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. Locker will have plenty of young, hungry weapons in receivers Nate Washington and Kenny Britt to pass to while Chris Johnson looks to regain his spot as the top running back in the game. Tennessee’s defense remains a squad of nameless-but-solid players that should keep the Titans in many close contests this season. While I do not believe Tennessee will crumble greatly, I do not believe they will match the 9-7 success of last season. Tennessee will be a tough team to beat but a team most teams will defeat. (Estimated number of wins: 6-8)
AFC West
Denver Broncos - Despite leading the Broncos to an 8-8 record, division title, and playoff victory, Tim Tebow was traded to the New York Jets after the Broncos signed quarterback Peyton Manning from Indianapolis. With Manning now under center, the Broncos hope to have arguably the greatest passer of all-time at QB for them. However, nobody knows for sure how Peyton Manning is going to play in meaningful games after missing all of the 2011 season recovering from neck surgery. However, even if Manning is a shell of his former self, the Denver Broncos are more than talented enough to be a winning team. The Broncos offense has a terrific dual threat in the backfield with running backs Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee and a quartet of stud receivers at Manning’s disposal in Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, and free agency acquisitions Andre Caldwell and Brandon Stokley. As loaded as Denver’s offense is, their defense is just as talented. Defensive end Elvis Dumervil, linebacker Von Miller, and cornerback Champ Bailey helm a defense among the league’s best in 2011 that will only improve in 2012. While I believe that the Super Bowl is not in their future, I can see the Broncos winning the AFC West and making some waves in the postseason. 2012 will be a very good year for the Broncos. (Estimated number of wins: 10-12)
Kansas City Chiefs - After finishing 7-9 last season, the Kansas City Chiefs look to improve in their first full season with coach Romeo Crennel. Matt Cassel has his favorite weapon in Kansas City happy as wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has a new contract. The addition of running back Peyton Hillis from Cleveland gives the Chiefs three solid backs in Hillis, Jamaal Charles, and RB/WR Dexter McCluster to offshoot the losses of RB Thomas Jones and fullback LeRon McClain to free agency. While Kansas City lacks many of the big names on defense that other AFC teams have, the KC defense is still steady and firm in the clutch. I do not believe Kansas City can really challenge Denver or San Diego for the division title. However, Kansas City will be a tough challenge for opposition throughout the season. They may even play spoiler for a few teams late in the season. (Estimated number of wins: 6-8)
Oakland Raiders - Despite finishing 8-8 for the second season in a row, the Oakland Raiders fired their head coach for the second season in a row. New coach Dennis Allen replaces Hue Jackson as the Raiders prepare for their first full season since the death of legendary owner Al Davis. Carson Palmer returns to Oakland as starting quarterback for his first full season after going 4-5 in nine games with the team last season. While the Raiders have another new coach, maintaining Palmer is really the first good move from Oakland in a long time. If healthy, his veteran leadership can guide the young corps of receivers to great things. Both Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey are among the league’s fastest receivers. A good report with palmer can only help both men improve. The loss of running back Michael Bush to Chicago should not hurt Oakland as bad if Darren McFadden can remain healthy for a full 16-game season. However, that is a feat easier said than done. Oakland’s defense is solid with veteran leadership from DE Richard Seymour and great play from talented linebacker Rolando McClain. I do not believe Oakland can win the division. However, they have the potential for another .500 season. With a few breaks falling their way, they may even get that first winning record since 2002 and earn a wild card berth in the postseason. (Estimated number of wins: 7-9)
San Diego Chargers - I just do not understand the San Diego Chargers. On paper, the Chargers should contend for the Super Bowl every year. However, they continue to regress year after year. Despite this, management retains head coach Norv Turner for reasons beyond my comprehension. In 2011, the Chargers went 8-8 and missed the postseason for a second consecutive season despite having another outstanding season from quarterback Phillip Rivers. Seeing San Diego’s weapons, I cannot understand why this team will not make the playoffs. Rivers has a loaded group of receivers in Malcolm Floyd and newly acquired Robert Meachem (from New Orleans) and Eddie Royal (from Denver). Running back Ryan Matthews is a scoring machine while the addition of fullback LeRon McClain (from Kansas City) adds a great receiving and blocking threat in the backfield. Tight end Antonio Gates is still among the elite at his position when healthy. Plus, the Chargers possess a talented defense with some of the league’s hardest hitters. That only leaves one reason why the Chargers will fail again in 2012: Norv Turner. He is just not a winning head football coach. San Diego will flirt with .500 and may even sneak into the postseason with a wild card berth. However, the Chargers will fail to live up to the potential this team has because of questionable leadership. (Estimated number of wins: 7-9)
Division Predictions (w/ Division Winners and Wild Card Teams in Bold)
AFC East - New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins
AFC North - Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns
AFC South - Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West - Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Championship Game Prediction
Baltimore Ravens 27 - New England Patriots 21
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| The Ravens will win the AFC Championship. |
Super Bowl XLVII Prediction
For my Super Bowl XLVII prediction, read the second part of my NFL Preview as I break down the NFC.
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